Definition

A constituency, state, or demographic that reliably predicts overall election outcomes. Named after the practice of putting bells on lead sheep, these predictive regions supposedly show which way the flock is heading.

Example Usage

Ohio was considered a bellwether state for decades, voting for the presidential winner in nearly every election from 1896 to 2016.

Origin

From Middle English 'belle-wether,' the castrated ram (wether) wearing a bell who leads the flock.

Fun Fact

Vigo County, Indiana voted for the winning presidential candidate in 47 of 49 elections from 1888 to 2016, then finally broke its streak in 2020.

Source: Electoral analysis terminology

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constituent service

The often-unglamorous work of helping individual voters navigate government bureaucracy, from fixing passport problems to tracking down Social Security checks. Politicians do this because voters remember who helped them way longer than they remember speeches.

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surrogate

A supporter who campaigns on behalf of a candidate, delivering messages and attacking opponents while the candidate maintains deniability. Democracy's proxy warrior.

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unfunded mandate

When the federal government requires state or local governments to implement policies without providing money to do so. The political version of assigning homework without providing textbooks.

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secession

The political equivalent of rage-quitting a group chat, but with borders and constitutions. When a region decides the relationship with its parent country just isn't working anymore and files for geographic divorce. The act of formally withdrawing from a political union, typically followed by strongly worded letters and sometimes cannons.

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A political movement that starts from ordinary people, as opposed to the usual method of starting from billionaires in mahogany-paneled rooms. It's democracy's version of a garage band, complete with more enthusiasm than funding.

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senate

The allegedly wiser, more deliberative upper chamber of a bicameral legislature, traditionally populated by elder statesmen who supposedly temper the passions of the lower house. Modern senates maintain the pretense of gravitas while often being just as partisan and theatrical as their counterparts. The U.S. Senate calls itself "the world's greatest deliberative body," which is either inspiring or hilarious depending on whether you've watched C-SPAN lately.

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