cone of uncertainty

Definition

A project management concept representing how forecast accuracy improves as you get closer to a deadline, visualized as a cone narrowing over time. It's why your six-month estimate is essentially a dart throw blindfolded.

Example Usage

We're still in the wide part of the cone of uncertainty, so that timeline is more hope than prediction.

Origin

Formalized by Barry Boehm in software engineering in 1981, though the concept existed in weather forecasting earlier.

Fun Fact

The cone starts at approximately 4x uncertainty and narrows to 0.8x-1.25x only at project completion—when it's useless.

Source: Project management and software engineering standards

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